Investitori emergenti in Africa: gli africani
– Dal rapporto Unctad 2012, sugli investimenti esteri diretti (IED)
– Negli ultimi 5 anni sono quasi raddoppiati gli investimenti tra paesi africani, nel 2011 rappresentano il 13% dei nuovi progetti.
– I dati segnalano l’emergere di multinazionali africane, che cercano profitti in mercati in rapido sviluppo, alimentati dall’export di risorse:
o petrolio in Angola e Nigeria, rame in Zambia e carbone in Mozambico hanno attirato investimenti per decine di miliardi di $ nel decennio scorso,
o che ha visto una forte espansione delle catene di supermercati, di gruppi edili e banche.
– Alcuni esempi di gruppi africani emergenti
– Il gruppo sudafricano Shoprite
ha raccolto $1MD in titoli e nuovo capitale per espandersi, in particolare in Nigeria e Rep. Democratica del Congo, giungendo a 223 magazzini in 16 paesi africani, escluso Sudafrica.
– Il gruppo sudafricano RTT, distributore di prodotti ed equipaggiamenti sanitari fornisce 27 paesi africani; il suo Ceo: i gruppi che forniscono servizi sanitari hanno possibilità di crescita esponenziale in Africa, dato che con il cambiamento di abitudini problemi cardiologici e diabete, sono quasi alla pari con HIV e tubercolosi.
– Il gruppo industriale nigeriano Dangolte ha acquisito una quota di maggioranza in gruppo sudafricano del cemento nel 2010, e investito $400mn. in una fabbrica del cemento in Zambia nel 2011.
– Il gruppo kenyota Transcentury, infrastrutture, ha fatto il suo primo IED nel 2005 in Tanzania, acquisendo la quota di maggioranza in una fabbrica di cavi elettrici della francese Nexans SA; da allora ha raddoppiato la sua quota del mercato in Tanzania.
– Il gruppo Bakhresa, Tanzania, il maggior mulino per farina dell’Africa Orientale ha investito $45mn., per un silos e un mulino in Mozambico, la cui crescita è di circa il 7% l’anno; da qui può esportare in Malawi, dove Bakhresa ha circa l’80% del mercato.
– La Cina rimane il maggior investitore in Africa, con un totale di $56,4MD nell’Africa Subsahariana dal 2005;
– Dallo scoppio della crisi, Usa ed Europa e altri paesi sviluppati hanno diminuito gli investimenti in Africa,
o e questo ha portato nel 2011, per il terzo anno consecutivo, ad una diminuzione dei complessivi investimenti esteri in Africa, a $42,7MD, contro il picco del 2008 di $57,8MD;
o i PVS aumentano invece la propria quota di IED in Africa.
o La tendenza non è omogenea, il calo riguarda principalmente il Nord Africa, tradizionalmente il maggior destinatario di IED, che si sono dimezzati, a $7,69MD nel 2011; i flussi in uscita dal Nord Africa sono scesi nel 2011 a $1,75 MD, contro i $4,85 MD del 2010, e i $8,75 del 2008.
o nell’Africa Subsahariana il flusso di IED è tornato circa al livello del 2008 ($37,3 MD): dai $29,5 MD del 2010 ai $36,9 MD nel in 2011.
– Gli IED verso l’Africa Occidentale (+36%, a $16,1MD) riguardavano innanzitutto Ghana e Nigeria, pari a ¾ del flusso totale della regione. Nel 2011 la Guinea ha avuto una delle maggiori crescite di IED, tendenza che dovrebbe continuare in vista dei progetti da $6MD del gruppo statale cinese China Power Investment Corporation bauxite e allluminio.
– Africa Centrale, il grosso degli IED a 3 paesi ricchi di risorse:
o Congo e Guinea Equatoriale, esportatori di petrolio, e Rep. Dem. del Congo, esportatrice di minerali.
o I flussi di IED in entrata nella regione sono calati del 10,2% a $8,53 MD, a causa della debolezza degli IED verso la Rep. Dem. del Congo.
– Africa Meridionale: ripresi gli IED dal declino del 78% nel 2010, più che raddoppiati a $6,37 MD, ripresa dovuta soprattutto al Sudafrica, mentre sono calati di oltre $2MD gli IED verso l’Angola.
– Africa Orientale: ha rovesciato la tendenza al calo del 2009-2010, giungendo a $3,96 MD, solo -5 sotto il picco del 2008; non essendo ritenuti ricchi di risorse i paesi della regione tradizionalmente non attirano grandi investimenti nella produzione agricola volta all’export. La scoperta di giacimenti di gas cambierà probabilmente la tendenza.
– Angola e Nigeria, i nuovi paesi produttori di gas e petrolio emergono come i maggiori destinatari di IED. Nel 2011 laNigeria è stato il maggior destinatario di IED ($8,92MD), oltre 1/5 del totale del continente. L’Angola ha ricevuto $10,5 MD, ma ci sono stati anche disinvestimenti e rimpatri di profitti …, che portano a -$5,59MD.
– Ghana, ha ricevuto IED per il nuovo giacimento petrolifero di Jubilee, dove la produzione è iniziata nel decembre 2010. Tullow Oil (UK) ha piani di investimento per $2 MD per una raffineria in Uganda. Noble Energy (Usa) piani per $1,6 MD per pozzi e piattaforma di trasformazione Guinea Equatoriale; nel 2011 gli IED in entrata verso Uganda e Guinea Equatoriale sono stati rispettivamente di $792 mn e $737 mn. nel 2011, progetti di base prevedono futuri IED per $6,1 MD in Uganda e $4,8 MD in Guinea Equatoriale.
– Le riserve di gas scoperte nell’Africa Orientale, Mozambico e Tanzania in particolare, offrono prospettive simili a quelle dei giacimenti petroliferi della costa atlantica;
o 2011, gli IED in Mozambico sono raddoppiati dal 2010, a $2,09MD; nel 2012 continuano ad essere scoperti nuovi giacimenti; occorreranno forti investimenti per l’estrazione; l’italiana ENI ha progetti per $50MD in Mozambico.
o Da analisi su periodi triennali si rileva una modificazione dei settori di destinazione degli IED in Africa: è in calo il peso del settore primario, anche se il valore complessivo dei progetti non cala,
o una crescita complessiva dei servizi; a parte le costruzioni ci sono progetti nel settore servizi per elettricità, gas e distribuzione idrica, trasporti, stoccaggio, e comunicazioni, e nel settore industriale per carbone, prodotti petroliferi, combustibile nucleare e nel manifatturiero.
o Molti progetti nel manifatturiero e servizi dipendono dalla disponibilità di risorse naturali o sono di sostegno all’industria estrattiva; tra essi la costruzione di una centrale elettrica a carbone in Nigeria, $15 MD, da parte del gruppo Western Goldfields (Canada), e uno da $8 MD di Klesch & Company (UK) per una raffineria di petrolio in Libia (annunciati nel 2008)
– Rendimento degli investimenti: per il 2010 i dati sulla redditività in Africa degli IED USA (come quota sullo stock di investimenti) sono del 20%, contro il 14% in America Latina e Caraibi, il 15% in Asia (United States Department of Commerce, 2011: 51).
– L’emergere di una piccola borghesia africana attira IED per il bancario, commercio al minuto e tlc.
– L’Africa conta oltre 1 MD di abitanti, 355 mn. dei quali spendono da $4 a $20/giorno, strato che la Banca Mondiale definisce “classe media”.
o Euromonitor International prevede che la spesa per i consumi raddoppi nel 2020 a quasi $1000MD.
o La crescita economica dell’Africa si aggira sul 5%, attorno al 10% in Angola e Ghana (mentre rallenta l’India, +5,3% nel primo trimestre 2012, e la Cina +8,1%, il ritmo più basso dalla primavera 2009. Brasile, +2,5%). L’accelerazione della crescita per diversi paesi parte da livelli molto bassi, Kenya e Ghana ad es. hanno economie minori della cittadina americana di Madison, Wisconsin.
o Collettivamente il PIL africano è già circa pari a quello del Brasile.
– I blocchi commerciali regionali stanno eliminando i dazi tra diversi paesi e armonizzando le regole doganali e dei visti.
– Il calo dei prezzi delle materie prime dovuto alla crisi internazionale colpisce gli esportatori africani; ad es. per il petrolio quelli di Nigeria, Angola e Ghana, a giugno il greggio è giunto al minimo su 18 mesi precedenti.
La crisi del debito europea ha colpito le valute più fluttuanti, come quella del Ghana e del Kenya, fortemente deprezzate quest’anno. L’economia più colpita dalla crisi europea è stata quella del Sudafrica, la maggiore e la più aperta.
Emerging Investors in Africa: Africans
As U.S. and Europe Scale Back Amid Global Crisis, Intra-Continent Investments Are on the Rise
– DAR ES SALAAM, Tanzania—As U.S. and European companies retrench from their efforts to bankroll projects across Africa, a group of investors is quickly emerging to pick up the slack—other Africans.
– Even as overall foreign investment into Africa has contracted, a cohort of homegrown companies has mounted an unprecedented expansion drive. Investment between African countries has almost doubled in the past five years, to 13% of new projects started on the continent last year, according to a report on foreign direct investment released Thursday by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
– African companies are heading into the rest of Africa in an unprecedented investment drive that has cushioned a pullback from the West and signaled the emergence of homegrown multinationals. WSJ’s Patrick McGroarty reports from Tanzania.
– The companies behind those investments are chasing high growth rates in fast-developing markets, many of them buoyed by resource exports.
o Oil in Angola and Nigeria, copper in Zambia and coal in Mozambique have each attracted tens of billions of dollars over the past decade.
o Over the period, the continent’s supermarket chains, construction companies and banks have expanded rapidly.
– South Africa’s Shoprite Group raised $1 billion in bonds and new stock in March to fuel expansion into markets including Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo, adding to the 223 stores in 16 countries it already has outside South Africa.
– The Nigerian industrial conglomerate Dangote Group spent $93 million on a majority stake in a South African cement maker in 2010 and $400 million to build a cement factory in Zambia in 2011.
– Togo-based Ecobank Transnational Inc. was the second-biggest investor in Africa over the past decade in terms of new projects; the bank now operates in 32 African countries.
– See foreign direct investment into Africa and select African countries on the World Investment Report 2012 [pag. 71 del rapporto], released Thursday by the UN’s Conference on Trade and Development.
– China has maintained its position as the continent’s top investor, pumping $56.4 billion into sub-Saharan Africa since 2005, the Heritage Foundation says.
– The U.S., Europe and other developed countries have sent less money to Africa since the global financial crisis began, according to the U.N. report. Overall investment into Africa fell for a third straight year in 2011, to $42.7 billion, down from a peak of $57.8 billion in 2008. "The overall fall in FDI to Africa was due principally to a reduction in flows from developed countries, leaving developing countries to increase their share in inward FDI to the continent," it said.
– Many of those developing-world investors, the report showed, hailed from within Africa, a continent of one billion people clamoring toward consumer lifestyles.
– Already, 355 million Africans spend from $4 to $20 a day, a tier the African Development Bank defines as middle class.
– Consumer spending in Africa is expected to double from current levels to nearly $1 trillion a year by 2020, according to research firm Euromonitor International.
– Africa’s growth is hovering above 5%—with rates approaching 10% in Angola and Ghana—even as the economies of billion-person developing markets in India and China are slowing. India’s economy grew 5.3% in the first quarter, the lowest rate in almost a decade, while China grew 8.1% in the same three months, the slowest since the spring of 2009.
– Last week, Brazil’s government ordered $4.1 billion in economic stimulus in an attempt to lift growth above a modest 2.5% this year.
"Africa’s domestic market is very big and very poorly served," says Gachao Kiuna, chief executive of Transcentury Ltd., a Kenyan power equipment and transport company whose revenue has grown to $300 million from $3 million in eight years. "That’s going to be the fundamental driver of continued economic growth—and that is what’s making us more resilient to the global economic shocks."
– Many African countries are accelerating growth from a tiny base. Kenya and Ghana each have economies smaller than Madison, Wis., the Brookings Institution wrote in a recent report.
– But collectively, the gross domestic product of Africa’s nations are already roughly the size of Brazil’s. Companies willing to decipher the cultural and regulatory nuances between 54 markets are positioned to tap decades of growth potential, according to Louis Deppe, a director for private-equity firm Actis LLP.
– "The demands within African countries are so high and there’s so much room for efficiencies that these markets can be introspective for a long time still," Mr. Deppe says.
– To be sure, global economic malaise hasn’t spared Africa entirely and could yet crimp the continent’s growth. Falling commodity prices are weighing on Africa’s resource exporters. Crude-oil prices fell to an 18-month low in June, hammering big exporters like Nigeria, Angola and Ghana.
– The European debt crisis has hurt Africa’s more liquid currencies, like Ghana’s cedi and Kenya’s shilling, which depreciated sharply this year as investors fled risky assets.
– South Africa, the continent’s largest and most open economy, has been the hardest hit—the rand hit a three-year-low against the U.S. dollar last month, but has recovered since.
– Some exporters are also struggling to find financing as the European banks that dominate that business have retrenched. "Africa is not divorced from the rest of the world," says Arnold Ekpe, Togo-based Ecobank’s chief executive.
– And a perennial challenge remains: the lack of reliable roads, phone lines and power grids to facilitate trade between countries. Trade between African countries has been stuck at about one-tenth of the continental total over the past decade, according to the International Monetary Fund.
– But some improved cross-border connections are making it easier to operate between countries. Stretches of Africa’s potholed roadways are getting face-lifts, often thanks to Chinese and Indian companies that need them to get minerals to ports.
– Direct flights now link big commercial hubs, whereas flying from Dakar, Senegal, to Lagos, Nigeria, used to involve an eight-hour trek that stopped in three different countries.
– Regional trade blocs are also eliminating tariffs between member countries and harmonizing customs and visa policies, reducing dayslong waits for trucks at some borders.
– In South Africa, service providers are among those tapping into the continent’s new middle class. Johannesburg-based medication and equipment distributor RTT Group has opened regional hubs in Ghana and Kenya since 2006 and now delivers to 27 African countries.
– Iain Barton, RTT’s chief executive, said health-service companies can grow almost exponentially in Africa, where heart disease and diabetes are becoming almost as common as HIV and tuberculosis as Africans consumption habits change. "It wouldn’t be ambitious to aim for less than tripling our business in the next five years," Dr. Barton said.
– Transcentury, Mr. Kiuna’s Kenya-based infrastructure company, made its first foreign investment in 2005 in Tanzania’s seaside capital of Dar es Salaam, acquiring a majority stake in an electric cable factory from France’s Nexans SA.
"They wanted to exit the market because they saw it as small," Mr. Kiuna said. "I would argue that was a mistake."
A spokeswoman for Nexans said the factory didn’t fit the company’s Africa strategy at the time.
– Less than one-tenth of Tanzania’s roads are paved and it can take a month for imports to clear Dar es Salaam’s port. That can make for unreliable supplies of the copper and aluminum Transcentury needs to forge its cables. But Mr. Kiuna said those tribulations were worth enduring to reach an urbanizing population of 44 million and growth above 6%. Under Transcentury, the factory has doubled its share of Tanzania’s cable market and turned a profit every year except 2010.
– Even with Tanzania’s robust growth, companies with strong positions here are looking to expand elsewhere. Since 2009, Bakhresa Group, East Africa’s biggest flour miller and Tanzania’s dominant purveyor of fruit juices and ice creams, has spent $45 million building a grain silo and flour mill in northern Mozambique. The mill will help Bakhresa ramp up sales in Mozambique, where growth averages above 7% a year, and make it easier to transport flour overland to neighboring Malawi. There, Bakhresa has nearly 80% of the market.
"We saw the market potential, and based on that, we expanded," said Ramesh Kumar, Bakhresa’s vice president for corporate planning. "We’re catering to markets with promise."
Write to Patrick McGroarty at patrick.mcgroarty@dowjones.com
UNCTAD’s flagship publication, World Investment Report 2012: Towards a New Generation of Investment Policies, was launched on 5 July in Geneva by Dr. James Zhan, Director of the Investment and Enterprise Division, as well as by staff and collaborators worldwide. UNCTAD Secretary-General, Dr. Supachai Panitchpakdi will present the Report at a roundtable in London later today.
– The Report indicates that global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows in 2011 surpassed the pre-crisis average – reaching US$1.5 trillion, despite persistent uncertainty in the global economy. However, flows still remained more than 20 per cent below their 2007 peak.
– Slower FDI growth in 2012 was predicted, with flows leveling off at about US$1.6 trillion. Longer-term projections show a moderate but steady rise, with global FDI reaching US$1.8 trillion in 2013 and US$1.9 trillion in 2014, barring any macro-economic shocks.
– FDI inflows in 2011 increased across all major economic regions. Flows to developing countries reached a record US$684 billion, up 11 per cent.
– Transition economies saw flows increase by 25 per cent to US$92 billion.
– Flows to developed countries grew by 21 per cent, but were still a quarter below the level of the pre-crisis average. However, FDI recession continued in Africa and LDCs.
The Report contains detailed analysis of global and regional investment trends, national policy developments and the special topic on the new generation of investment policies. The Report contains a comprehensive investment policy framework for sustainable development, which provides detailed guidelines for national and international investment policymaking.
The Report also suggests that investment policy-making is at a cross-road, reflected by intensified review and revision of existing national and international investment regimes. Many countries continue to liberalize and promote foreign investment. At the same time, new regulatory and control measures are introduced, although often in pursuit of other policy objectives, such as industrial policy.
The Report and accompanying detailed statistics can be downloaded at www.unctad.org/WIR201