Siria, fazioni, potenze
The Independent 130930
+ Asia Times, 04.10.’13 – Mosca vuole l’impegno degli Usa a tutto raggio
– La guerra civile in Siria sta modificandosi drammaticamente; secondo il giornale turco Hurriyet di fatto la guerra tra governo e opposizione è cessata da tempo, non è più una lotta contro il dittatore ma per il predominio o meno della sharia. Per la Russia va nella giusta direzione.
– Di recente ci sono state numerose defezioni dall’Esercito Libero Siriano confluite nel Fronte al-Nusra.
– La crescita di al-Nusra e di altri gruppi islamisti
– ha deluso migliaia di membri moderati dell’ELS, che si sentono da essi defraudati della loro rivoluzione,
– e ha accomunato USA-Russia e Iran contro al-Qaeda. (AT) L’Amministrazione Obama si occuperà di nuovo della questione siriana solo quando avrà maggiore chiarezza sul fronte iraniano.
– La Russia ha siglato un accordo quadro con OIC, l’Organizzazione per la Cooperazione Islamica (alla quale aderisce anche l’Arabia Saudita). L’accordo prevede consultazioni bilaterali su questioni internazionali chiave, comprese quelle che regolano i conflitti in cui sono coinvolti i paesi OIC.
– I guerriglieri islamisti sono divenuti una minaccia per i cristiani siriani; recenti attacchi al villaggio cristiano di Maloula e Raqqa; vescovi e patriarchi della regione si sono riuniti per denunciare l’esodo dei cristiani dal MO; il cardinale cattolico maronita del Libano parla di “primavera araba trasformata in inverno, ferro e fuoco”
– In parte della provincia di Homs sono di fatto cessati gli scontri tra ELS e esercito di Assad.
– Sono iniziati negoziati segreti tra rappresentanti dei ribelli dell’Esercito Libero Siriano (ELS) – (in gran parte costituito da militari che nel primo anno della protesta hanno defezionato l’esercito regolare) e rappresentanti del governo Assad.
– Quattro le richieste della delegazione dell’ELS:
– 1. deve esservi un dialogo interno siriano;
– 2. mantenimento delle proprietà pubbliche e private;
– 3. fine e condanna degli scontri civili, settari ed etnici;
– 4. tutto deve avere come obiettivo una Siria democratica.
– Non sono state richieste le dimissioni di Assad.
– Risposta dei rappresentanti di Assad: Sì al dialogo interno, ma nessuna precondizione; garanzia presidenziale per la sicurezza dei rappresentanti dell’ELS.
– La statura politica di Assad ne esce aumentata, e risulta l’unico capace di respingere il rischio della invasione di al-Qaeda in Siria.
– In sette aree di Aleppo controllate dai ribelli, per la maggior parte dell’ELS, i dipendenti pubblici possono tornare al lavoro, e possono riaprire istituzioni statali e scuole.
– L’annuncio della creazione di una “Alleanza islamica” dei gruppi estremisti ha prodotto una nuova polarizzazione:
– gli elementi laici e moderati con il regime Assad, contro i gruppi jihadisti;
– alcuni membri dell’ELS hanno costituito l’“Unione Nazionale per salvare la Siria”.
– Ampie aree del territorio controllato dai ribelli può tornare sotto il controllo del governo; l’esercito regolare, rafforzato dal ritorno dei disertori può combattere al-Nusra e i gruppi affiliati ad al-Qaeda in nome dell’Unità nazionale.
SYRIA’S CIVIL WAR
Moscow seeks full-spectrum US engagement
By M K Bhadrakumar
– The high drama of the US-Iran thaw and the diplomatic wrangle over Syria’s chemical weapons cannot hide the ground reality that the nature of the war in Syria is dramatically changing. Moscow grasps this and it may have prompted President Vladimir Putin’s remark earlier in the week that things are moving in the right direction.
– Moscow hopes that building on the recent US-Russia initiative on Syria’s chemical weapons, the Russian-American relationship could move on to a higher trajectory.
On Thursday, Putin’s aide, Yury Ushakov, disclosed that there could be a meeting between Putin and President Barack Obama at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit on Tuesday at Bali, Indonesia. The initiative came from the Russian side, which was "immediately taken up by the American side" and while confirmation was awaited, "we think this meeting will go ahead," Ushakov said.
Evidently, Moscow didn’t factor in the possibility that domestic political preoccupations might prompt Obama to call of his trip to Indonesia, which he has done.
War changes course
– Meanwhile, the tectonic shift in the Syrian war has been laid bare in an exclusive report on Monday by the Independent newspaper’s veteran Middle East correspondent Robert Fisk.
– Fisk reported that contacts have been made by elements of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) from Aleppo with the Syrian government and a two-member rebel delegation travelled to Damascus under a guarantee of safety from the regime to meet a senior official on the staff of President Bashar al-Assad.
– FSA will now allow government offices and institutions such as schools to reopen in the rebel-held areas of Aleppo, and fighting between the FSA and the army has ceased in certain areas of the strategic Homs province.
– Fisk estimates that the growing defection from the FSA ranks to the al-Qaeda-linked al-Nusra Front and the steady ascendancy of the hardline Islamist groups has disillusioned the "moderate" rebels.
After me, the deluge
– Buying into this trend, the massive attack recently on Christian churches in Raaqqa and the brutal assault on the ancient Christian village of Maaloula by the al-Nusra group, serves as a rude wake-up call for Western capitals. Bishops and patriarchs from across the region met in Beirut last Friday to lament that the Arab Spring has "turned to winter, to iron and fire" for the Christians of the Middle East.
In political terms, what emerges is that:
– The growing dominance of the al-Qaeda-affiliated groups in Syria brings the US, Russia and Iran on the same page in terms of shared hostility toward al-Qaeda;
– Collectively or individually, these countries can be expected to ensure that Syria does not become an al-Qaeda base camp;
– The US and its Western allies may even consider altogether mothballing the idea of sending sophisticated weapons to the FSA for fear they may end up with the al-Qaeda-affiliated groups;
– The recent announcement of the formation of an "Islamic Alliance" of the extremist groups is triggering a new polarization in which the moderate and secular elements would have more in common with the regime than with the jihadi groups. Fisk reported that some FSA members have formed a so-called National Union[e] for Saving Syria with the intent to hold talks with the regime.
When the tussle between the jihadis and Islamists sharpens – and there are reports of violent clashes – Islamism as a whole takes a beating as beacon for Syria’s future;
– Equally, the regional states supporting the Islamist rebel groups in Syria will be forced to rethink. Saudi King Abdullah has invited Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to go on Haj pilgrimage.
– President Assad rises in stature on the political chessboard. On top of the staying power he has shown so far, he is also assuming a new role as the UN’s interlocutor ensuring the success of the mission undertaken by the experts from the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. Assad now emerges as the only figure capable of rolling back the al-Qaeda deluge in Syria.
Democracy on donkey’s back
The prominent Turkish columnist for Hurriyet newspaper Semih Idiz summed up:
– Let’s face it, the war in Syria is no longer about fighting against a brutal dictator for the sake of democracy. It hasn’t been for some time. The war is now over whether Syria will be run according to the Sunni Shariah or remain a secular country even if not a democratic one.
– Curiously, Sergei Ivanov, the powerful presidential chief of staff in the Kremlin, put it all other in a candid media talk on Monday. He said, "The war between the government and the opposition stopped [in Syria] a long time ago." Ivanov noted. He went on:
– The West is beginning to understand that maybe the [Syrian] opposition should be divided, that it is necessary to stop trying to persuade al-Qaeda and other extremist groups to speak about Geneva-2, and that weapons deliveries to then should be preferably stopped … first we could split the opposition into two parts and invite both Assad’s representatives and what we can describe as a reasonable opposition to the Geneva-2 where dialogue may be launched.
Then, Ivanov looked a little bit further ahead and tossed around an absolutely audacious thought:
– Certainly, it would be naive and ridiculous to speak about any free expression of will in Syria, but if we agree to recognize the foundations of democracy, let’s try to organize fair elections, similar to how it was done in Afghanistan. If you remember, during the last elections [in Afghanistan], ballot papers were delivered by donkeys for half a year, and the vote counting process took quite long as well. But we are ready to accept even this. However, first they will have to agree on the rules of the game.
Ironically, it is Russia that is pressing for Syria to have a crack at liberal democracy at the soonest, as early as by the presidential election due in May 2014. Whereas, the US remains mum.
– The Obama administration hopes to revisit the Syrian problem only after gaining greater clarity on the Iranian front.
– However, Obama’s problem lies elsewhere, namely, how to sell this intriguing Russian idea of an "Afghan solution" to the Syrian question to his regional allies – Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar principally – who never expected things to come to this extraordinary pass.
– Fortunately, if it is Saudi Arabia that poses a headache for Obama, here too Russian diplomacy can help. On Monday, Moscow had an important visitor from Jeddah, Saudi Arabia – the secretary-general of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu.
– Now, the OIC bears the imprimatur of the Saud regime. During Ihasanoglu’s visit, Russia signed a framework agreement with the OIC, which provides for bilateral consultations on key issues on the international agenda, "including the issues of regulating conflicts in which OIC member countries are involved".
Casting the net wide
– On a broader plane, the Russian expectation is to quickly build on what Putin noted in a speech on Tuesday as "common achievement" of Russia and the US regarding the elimination of Syria’s chemical weapons. Moscow’s expectation was to put Syria peace talks on focus at the Bali meeting talks between Putin and Obama. The meeting would have shown how far Obama is prepared to follow the Russian lead on Syria.
Of course, Obama would know that Russia is casting the net wide for a full spectrum Russian-American engagement starting with Syria. In fact, in the past 10 days there have been two high-level meetings between Russia and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to exchange views regarding the change of US missile defense plans announced by Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel in March 2013.
Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar served as a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service for over 29 years, with postings including India’s ambassador to Uzbekistan (1995-1998) and to Turkey (1998-2001).
(Copyright 2013 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)
Monday 30 September 2013
A Syrian solution to civil conflict? The Free Syrian Army is holding talks with Assad’s senior staff
Secret approach to the President could reshape the whole war
– Six weeks ago, a two-man delegation arrived in secret in Damascus: civilians from Aleppo who represented elements of the Free Syrian Army, the rebel group largely composed of fighters who deserted the regime’s army in the first year of the war. They came under a guarantee of safety, and met, so I am told, a senior official on the staff of President Bashar al-Assad. And they carried with them an extraordinary initiative – that there might be talks between the government and FSA officers who “believed in a Syrian solution” to the war.
– The delegation made four points: that there must be an “internal Syrian dialogue”; that private and public properties must be maintained; that there must be an end to – and condemnation of – civil, sectarian, ethnic strife; and that all must work for a democratic Syria where the supremacy of law would be dominant. There was no demand – at least at this stage – for Assad’s departure.
– The reply apparently came promptly. There should indeed be “a dialogue within the Syrian homeland”; no preconditions for the dialogue; and a presidential guarantee of safety for any FSA men participating. And now, it seems, another remarkable development is under way:
o in seven rebel-held areas of Aleppo, most of them under the control of the FSA, civil employees can return to work in their offices, and government institutions and schools can reopen. Students who have become militiamen over the past two years will be disarmed and return to their classrooms.
– Some members of the FSA have formed what they call the “National Union[e] for Saving Syria”, although members of the political opposition in areas outside government control disrupted meetings by condemning the government army and, according to those involved in the “Union”, making sectarian comments and condemning Shiites and Iran. Last week there were several defections of FSA units to the al-Qa’ida-linked al-Nusra Front, which has complicated matters still further. If the FSA is prepared to talk to the regime, how many are now left to take part in future agreements between the two sides?
– For months now, pro-regime officials have explored how they might win the army defectors back to their side – and the growth of al-Nusra and other Islamist groups has certainly disillusioned many thousands of FSA men who feel that their own revolution against the government has been stolen from them. And in areas of Homs province, it is a fact that fighting between the FSA and the army has virtually ceased. In some government-held villages and towns the FSA are already present without being molested.
– And the advantages to Assad are clear. If FSA men could be persuaded to return to the ranks of the regime’s army in complete safety, large areas of rebel-held territory would return to government control without a shot being fired. An army reinforced by its one-time deserters could then be turned against al-Nusra and its al-Qa’ida affiliates in the name of national unity.
– The Islamist fighters in the Syrian opposition are certainly a source of deep concern to everyone involved in the war – not least, of course, the Americans, who continue to dither over whether they should give weapons to the rebels. Had the US administration followed John McCain’s advice, for example, some of the arms that might have been given to the FSA would already be in the hands of al-Nusra now that three units within the FSA have gone across to the Islamists.
– The Islamist fighters in Syria are meanwhile turning into a serious threat to the very existence of the country’s Christians. Bishops and patriarchs from across the region met in Beirut last Friday to lament the exodus of the Christians of the Middle East; Catholic Maronite Cardinal Bechara Rai of Lebanon described how for Christians, “the ‘Arab Spring’ had turned to winter, to iron and fire”.
– The prelates were particularly upset at the massive damage to churches in Raqqa – now under the control of the al-Nusra group – and at the al-Nusra attack on Maaloula. I saw myself last week how perverse was this assault on the largely Christian Syrian town north of Damascus. In Christian homes, crucifixes had been smashed, but the al-Nusra invaders seemed to take a perverse pleasure in wrecking their homes. In one basement flat they had emptied the fridge of food and stuffed it full of shoes.
Now that’s something to bend your mind!
Curious facts colour UN’s report
– So now the world has convinced itself that the Assad regime fired the sarin gas shells on 21 August, it really is time to read the full version of the UN chemical weapons inspectors’ report from Syria. The details of the death and suffering of the innocents of the Ghouta area of Damascus are fearful. Two brothers, it transpires, were the only survivors of their family of 40 who all lived in the same building. But one or two paragraphs need re-reading.
– “A leader of the local opposition forces (sic) who was deemed prominent in the area…was identified and requested to take ‘custody’ of the [UN] Mission,” it says. Naturally the UN inspectors would want to be kept safe. But they were, in effect, in the hands of the rebels. A list of questions for survivors was also “circulated to the opposition contacts”.
– Rather more worrying, however, is a short paragraph on page 22. At the sites where sarin gas missiles landed, it says, the inspectors found that “the locations have been well traveled (sic) by other individuals prior to the arrival of the Mission… During the times spent at these locations, individuals arrived carrying other suspected munitions indicating that such potential evidence is being moved and possibly manipulated.”
Manipulated? Odd, but I don’t remember that quotation in the media accounts of the inspectors’ report…