Verso Oriente! + Wsws100719 La Cancelliera tedesca Merkel in visita in Russia e Asia, mentre cresce la critica alla politica este

Gfp     100714
Verso Oriente!

+ Wsws          100719, La Cancelliera tedesca Merkel in visita in Russia e Asia, mentre cresce la critica alla politica estera tedesca, Johannes Stern

●    Con il viaggio in Russia e Cina e Kazakistan, la Cancelliera tedesca accelera il rafforzamento delle relazioni economiche tedesche, al di là di quelle verso UE e Nord America.

o   La portata politica della visita è evidenziata dal fatto che nella delegazione che ha accompagnato la Merkel erano presenti – oltre a rappresentanti di gruppi economici (Airbus, Siemens, E.on e VW) – rappresentanti di tutti i partiti politici parlamentari e per la prima volta il capo della confederazione sindacale tedesca DGB, Michael Sommer.

o   I più importanti contratti siglati: Siemens fornirà per il 220 treni regionali (€2,4 MD) , e modernizzerà di scali di smistamento (€600 MD); Airbus fornirà aerei per €2MD.

o   Il partito Die Linke si propone come sostegno aggiuntivo al nuovo orientamento politico tedesco verso Mosca.

●    Divergenze interne tedesche sull’asse Berlino-Mosca:

o    in opposizione alla linea filo-russa sostenuta dal ex cancelliere ed alleato Schröder ora a capo del Consiglio di supervisione del consorzio per l’oleodotto del Baltico, NEGP, che coopera con Gazprom accusata di aver deliberatamente sabotato Nabucco;

o   l’ex ministro Esteri Fischer (Alleanza 90/Verdi) – attualmente consulente per il progetto di oleodotto Nabucco in cui è coinvolto il gruppo tedesco RWE – propugna al suo posto la cooperazione con la Turchia, in posizione geo-politica ideale per garantire la sicurezza della UE; senza la Turchia la UE potrebbe far poco o nulla nel Mediterraneo orientale, Egeo, Balcani occidentali, Caspio, Sud Caucaso, Asia Centrale e MO.

o   La Turchia non può essere dimenticata se la UE vuole rendersi meno dipendente dal Mosca per l’energia. Fischer accusa la Merkel di consegnare la Turchia nelle braccia di Mosca e Tehran.

o   Tesi Wsws: gli effetti economici e politici della crisi finanziaria stanno velocemente dividendo Germania e USA.

o   In Germania esponenti del German Council on Foreign Relations e del settimanale Der Spiegel lamentano che al ministero Esteri non ci sia più l’SPD Steinmeier (che inventò il concetto di “alleanza per la modernizzazione), ma l’FDP Westerwelle che manca dei giusti sentimenti verso la Russia;accusano la politica estera della coalizione Union-FDP di aver dimenticato la Russia, consentendo a Francia, Italia e USA di contendere alla Germania la posizione di vantaggio con la Russia. Der Spiegel: si lamentano di questo anche i rappresentanti di filiali russe di gruppi tedeschi: la Germania sta perdendo mentre le relazioni commerciali russo-francesi sono aumentate del 250%, nonostante la crisi finanziaria:

o   il gigante francese dell’energia, GDF Suez, ha acquisito il 9% dell’oleodotto del Baltico dai gruppi tedeschi Wintershall e Eon-Ruhrgas;

o   l’industria nucleare francese sta battendo quella tedesca: la russa Rosatom ha firmato un accordo con la francese EDF, segna invece il passo l’accordo di Siemens con Rosatom.

o   L’ex cancelliere SPD, Schröder, ha criticato il governo Merkel per “mancanza di idee”, e per contrastare l’influenza di Cina e USA ha spinto al UE a stringere un accordo con la Russia, importante per le sue enormi risorse e per la stabilità e la sicurezza europee.

– La Russia è di gran lunga il più importante fornitore di energia della Germania;

o   la Cina diverrà il centro dell’economia mondiale; conseguente alla sua veloce ascesa[1]lo spostamento del baricentro economico mondiale dall’Atlantico al Pacifico, su cui si affacciano già oggi le tre maggiori economie mondiali: Usa, Cina e Giappone.

●    Rafforzando le relazioni economiche con la Cina, (l’export verso la Cina ha consentito alla Germania di superare con minori danni la crisi economica mondiale), Berlino mira ad evitare il rischio di emarginazione economica sulla scena mondiale (paventato da esperti per l’Europa).

●    MA, per non consentire che Pechino rafforzi l’influenza su Mosca a suo discapito, come paventato da alcuni circoli economici, Berlino vuole accelerare la cooperazione con la Russia.

o   Pechino negli ultimi anni intensificato le relazioni economiche con la Russia e superato la Germania come maggior fornitore:

o   la Cina importa dalla Russia soprattutto energia, ma vi esporta soprattutto prodotti industriali;

o   dato che la modernizzazione dell’industria russa non avanza, e manca una competizione interna, la Cina sta assumendo in modo crescente il ruolo che aveva Berlino: comprare dalla Russia materie prime e venderle i suoi prodotti industriali.

– La velocità dell’ascesa cinese è esemplificata ad es. dal sistema di navigazione satellitare cinese Beidou;

o   Beidou è poco conosciuto in Europa, ma è molto più avanzato del parallelo progetto europeo Galileo, e potrebbe entrare in funzione prima.

– Altro esempio il trasporto aereo: fino a due anni fa le compagnie europee Lufthansa, Air France e British Airways erano ai primi posti mondiali per profitti,

o   oggi dopo Emirates (EAU) vengono Air China e Cathay Pacific;

o   nel 2020 si prevede che la Cina avrà altrettanti passeggeri di tutta l’Europa, con tendenza in crescita.

———————————–

– Il Centro Russia/Eurasia, fondato a metà anni 1990 per accompagnare la nuova espansione tedesca verso Oriente, e dal 2008 finanziato principalmente dall’Ost-Ausschuss der Deutschen Wirtschaft (Comitato-Est dell’Economia tedesca) e da Deutsche Bank, ora riceverà da entrambe queste due istituzioni €100mila/anno per intensificare soprattutto le relazioni collegamento con la Russia e con esso quello con Ucraina e paesi centro-asiatici,

o   in particolare accompagnare maggiormente l’impegno economico tedesco in questi paesi con “analisi approfondite”.

o   Centro ha assunto il nuovo nome di Berthold-Beitz-Zentrum – Centro di competenza per Russia, Ucraina, Bielorussia e Centro Asia di DGAP (Società Tedesca per la Politica Estera.

o   Berthold Beitz, considerato uno dei più potenti rappresentanti dell’industria tedesca, ebbe dagli anni 1950 una posizione preminente in Krupp e ThyssenKrupp; negli anni 1970 partecipò  al rafforzamento delle relazioni economiche Germania Federale-Russia.

o   Direttore del centro è Alexander Rahr, uno dei maggiori sostenitori nell’establishment politico berlinese della cooperazione con la Russia.

– Tra i temi in discussione a Mosca, nel viaggio della Merkel, l’ingresso del gruppo russo Sistema in quello tedesco Infineon AG.

o   Il progetto è fortemente criticato dai circoli tedeschi filo-atlantici, perché consentirebbe alla Russia di accedere a tecnologie di importanza strategica.

o   Finora Berlino è favorevole, perché porterebbe ad una intensificazione della cooperazione russo-tedesca.

o   Il progetto prevede affari miliardari, che potrebbero essere vantaggiosi ad es. per Siemens in Russia;

o   vi è interessata anche Deutsche Bahn perché le consentirebbe di assumere trasporti regolari per la Cina.

I forti profitti per i gruppi previsti in queste imprese si uniscono ad un collegamento più stretto della Russia alla Germania con i relativi vantaggi geostrategici per Berlino.

[1] Nel 2009 la Cina ha sostituito la Germania come prima esportatrice mondiale, nel 2010 si prevede che supererà il Giappone come 2a economia mondiale; secondo gli esperti, in 10-15 anni potrebbe superare anche gli Usa.

Gfp      100714
Nach Osten!
14.07.2010
BERLIN/MOSKAU/BEIJING

–   (Eigener Bericht) – Mit ihrer heute beginnenden Reise nach Russland und China treibt die Bundeskanzlerin den Ausbau der deutschen Wirtschaftsbeziehungen jenseits von EU und Nordamerika voran.

–   Hintergrund ist der rasche Aufstieg Chinas und die damit verbundene aktuelle Verschiebung des weltwirtschaftlichen Schwergewichts von den Ländern am Atlantik zu den Pazifikstaaten.

–   Bereits jetzt liegen mit den USA, China und Japan die drei weltgrößten Volkswirtschaften am Stillen Ozean. Haben die Exporte nach China die Bundesrepublik über die Weltwirtschaftskrise hinweggerettet, so sieht Berlin sich nun gezwungen, die deutsch-russische Zusammenarbeit mit raschen Schritten voranzutreiben. Denn auch Russland gerät immer stärker in den ökonomischen Sog der Volksrepublik; Wirtschaftskreise warnen schon, der Westen könne seinen Einfluss in Moskau an Beijing verlieren. In Berlin soll deshalb das neue "Berthold-Beitz-Zentrum" der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik die wirtschaftliche Expansion nach Russland fördern. Konkrete Schritte stehen zudem bei der aktuellen Reise der Kanzlerin auf dem Programm.

Wichtige Tage

Am heutigen Mittwoch bricht die deutsche Kanzlerin zu einer mehrtägigen Reise nach Russland, China und Kasachstan auf. Im Mittelpunkt steht vor allem in Russland und China der Ausbau der ökonomischen Kooperation: "Wichtige Tage für die Wirtschaftsbeziehungen Deutschlands" seien zu erwarten, kündigt Angela Merkel an.[1] In den langfristigen Plänen Berlins kommt Moskau und Beijing eine herausragende Bedeutung zu:

Russland ist der mit Abstand wichtigste Energielieferant der Bundesrepublik, China gilt als künftiges Zentrum der Weltwirtschaft.

–   Die Volksrepublik hat im vergangenen Jahr Deutschland als Exportweltmeister abgelöst, wird womöglich noch im Jahr 2010 Japan als zweitgrößte Volkswirtschaft der Welt ablösen und könnte der Einschätzung von Experten zufolge in zehn bis 15 Jahren auch die Vereinigten Staaten überrunden.

–   Deutschland zieht bislang aus den boomenden China-Geschäften erheblichen Nutzen. Insbesondere haben die Exporte in die Volksrepublik entscheidend geholfen, die Weltwirtschaftskrise ohne einen noch schlimmeren Zusammenbruch zu überstehen.[2]

Zweite Liga

–   Mittlerweile ruft das rasante chinesische Wirtschaftswachstum in Deutschland jedoch auch Sorgen hervor. Schon zu Beginn des Jahres hatte der Direktor des Hamburgischen Weltwirtschaftsinstituts, Thomas Straubhaar, prophezeit, Europa werde im kommenden Jahrzehnt "aus dem Zentrum an den Rand" des globalen Wirtschaftsgeschehens gedrängt werden und unweigerlich "in die zweite Liga" absteigen.[3] Dem sucht Berlin mit dem Ausbau der deutsch-chinesischen Wirtschaftsbeziehungen vorzubeugen.

–   Wie schnell sich der chinesische Aufstieg vollzieht, verdeutlichen Beispiele wie das chinesische Satellitennavigationssystem Beidou, das – in Europa weithin unbemerkt – mittlerweile weiter fortgeschritten ist als das europäische Parallelprojekt Galileo und früher betriebsbereit sein könnte.[4]

–   Ein weiteres Beispiel bietet der globale Luftverkehr.

o    Standen auf der Weltrangliste der profitabelsten Airlines noch vor zwei Jahren die europäischen Marktführer Lufthansa, Air France und British Airways an der Spitze,

o    so finden sich dort heute nach Emirates (Vereinigte Arabische Emirate) Air China und Cathay Pacific (beide China). "Im Jahr 2020", schätzen Experten, "gibt es allein in China ebenso viele Passagierflugzeuge wie in ganz Europa zusammen" [5] – und dies bei weiterhin steigender Tendenz.

Die Frage der Orientierung

Dabei kämpft Berlin nicht nur in China darum, den Anschluss nicht zu verpassen, sondern auch in Russland.

–   Beijing hat die Wirtschaftsbeziehungen nach Russland in den letzten Jahren intensiviert und dort inzwischen Deutschland von der Position des Hauptlieferanten verdrängt.

–   Der Ausbau der chinesisch-russischen Beziehungen schreitet voran – auf ungleicher Grundlage: Während China vor allem Energierohstoffe aus Russland bezieht, liefert es selbst hauptsächlich Industrieprodukte, weil die Modernisierung der russischen Industrie nicht recht vorankommt und damit eine innerrussische Konkurrenz fehlt.[6]

–   Damit nimmt Beijing in wachsendem Maße eine Rolle ein, die Berlin für sich selbst reserviert hatte – es empfängt russische Rohstoffe und verkauft seine Waren in Russland. In Berlin weisen Regierungsberater wie der Russland-Experte Alexander Rahr bereits seit geraumer Zeit darauf hin, dass Moskau sich künftig nach Osten wenden und von Europa abkehren könne, sollten die Bindungen zwischen Europa und Russland nicht enger werden (german-foreign-policy.com berichtete [7]).

Berthold-Beitz-Zentrum

Um den Ausbau der deutsch-russischen Beziehungen zu forcieren, unternehmen interessierte Kreise in Berlin nun neue Anstrengungen. Zum 1. Juli ist das "Russland/Eurasien-Zentrum" der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik (DGAP) aufgewertet und symbolisch umbenannt worden.

–   Das Zentrum, das Mitte der 1990er Jahre zur Begleitung der neuen deutschen Ostexpansion gegründet und seit 2008 hauptsächlich vom Ost-Ausschuss der Deutschen Wirtschaft und der Deutschen Bank finanziert wurde, wird dazu ab sofort vom Ost-Ausschuss und der Deutschen Bank mit je 100.000 Euro jährlich unterstützt.

–   Es soll die Einbindung vor allem Russlands und in Verbindung damit auch der Ukraine und der Staaten Zentralasiens noch intensiver als bisher vorantreiben und insbesondere "das wirtschaftliche Engagement Deutschlands" in diesen Ländern stärker "mit profunden Analysen begleiten".[8]

–   Es trägt nun den Namen "Berthold-Beitz-Zentrum – Kompetenzzentrum für Russland, Ukraine, Belarus und Zentralasien in der DGAP". Berthold Beitz hatte seit den 1950er Jahren eine führende Stellung bei Krupp bzw. ThyssenKrupp inne und gilt als einer der mächtigsten Männer der deutschen Industrie; er war maßgeblich am Ausbau der Geschäfte zwischen der Bundesrepublik und der Sowjetunion in den 1970er Jahren beteiligt.

–   Leiter des Berthold-Beitz-Zentrums ist Alexander Rahr, einer der profiliertesten Befürworter einer engen Zusammenarbeit mit Russland im Berliner Polit-Establishment.

Konkrete Schritte

–   Konkrete Schritte stehen bei der heute beginnenden Reise der Kanzlerin auf der Tagesordnung. Zu den Themen, die der Abstimmung harren, gehört etwa der von Moskau gewünschte Einstieg des russischen Sistema-Konzerns bei der deutschen Infineon AG.

–   Der Plan wird vor allem von transatlantisch orientierten Kreisen scharf kritisiert, da er Russland Zugang zu sicherheitsrelevanten Technologien verschaffen könnte. Bislang wird er jedoch von Berlin unterstützt, da er die deutsch-russische Kooperation intensivieren würde.

–   Begleitet wird das Vorhaben von Milliardengeschäften, die zum Beispiel dem Siemens-Konzern in Russland zugute kommen (german-foreign-policy.com berichtete [9]).

–   Auch die Deutsche Bahn AG ist weiterhin an einer engen Zusammenarbeit interessiert, die ihr die Aufnahme regelmäßiger Transportfahrten nach China ermöglichte.[10]

–   Hohe Konzerngewinne verbinden sich in derlei Unternehmungen mit einer engeren Anbindung Russlands an Deutschland und deshalb mit geostrategischen Vorteilen für Berlin – ein gelungenes Projekt zum Erhalt und zum Ausbau globaler deutscher Macht.

[1] Wirtschaftsbeziehungen intensivieren; www.bundesregierung.de 10.07.2010

[2] s. dazu Künftige Konflikte

[3] s. dazu Zweite Liga

[4] s. dazu Europa bleibt zurück

[5] Flugmacht China; WirtschaftsWoche 12.07.2010

[6] Zwischen den Stühlen; WirtschaftsWoche 31.05.2010

[7] s. dazu Eine Frage der Orientierung und Der Sinn der Aussöhnung

[8] Berthold-Beitz-Zentrum in Berlin gegründet; www.ost-ausschuss.de 30.06.2010

[9] s. dazu Die Wirtschaftsachse Berlin-Moskau (III)

[10] "Das sind keine Brosamen"; WirtschaftsWoche 28.06.2010

———————–
Wsws 100719
World Socialist Web Site
wsws.org

Published by the International Committee of the Fourth International (ICFI)

German Chancellor Merkel visits Russia, Asia as criticism of foreign policy grows

By Johannes Stern

19 July 2010

–   Last week, Chancellor Angela Merkel (Christian Democratic Union, CDU) visited Russia with a large government and business delegation. A joint German-Russian cabinet meeting was held in Ekaterinburg, in the Urals. In addition, extensive economic projects were discussed and business contracts signed. Other stops on the tour include China and Kazakhstan.

–   Merkel’s trip to Asia has been overshadowed by fierce criticism of her foreign policy. Even before she left Berlin, there were accusations that her government was neglecting the relationship with Russia.

–   In an interview with the Berliner Zeitung, the Russia expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations, Stefan Meister, said that since the CDU-led coalition with the Christian Social Union[e] (CSU) and Free Democratic Party (FDP) had taken over the government, “Russia has slipped down the list of priorities of German foreign policy”. Meister said that a “Russia concept” by Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle (FDP) was impossible to detect, and this was “not good”.

–   The chief correspondent of Der Spiegel in Moscow, Matthias Schepp, was also unenthusiastic about the state of German-Russian relations. He said FDP ministers Westerwelle and Rainer Brüderle were regarded as lightweights in the Kremlin, and in the meantime, France, Italy and the USA had challenged Germany’s leading position that it had held for a long time in relation to Russia. The reason primarily lay with the federal government, where there was no one who “feels really responsible for Russia”.

–   According to Schepp, company representatives for Russian subsidiaries of German corporations have also been complaining loudly for a long time “about the lack of political support from Berlin”. Germany was retreating, while Russian-French trade had risen by 250 percent, despite the financial crisis.

–   The report in Der Spiegel cites the following facts: the French energy giant GDF Suez has acquired a nine percent share in the Baltic Sea pipeline from the German corporations Wintershall and EON-Ruhrgas, and the French nuclear industry is clearly outstripping Germany’s. While the Russian Agency for Atomic Energy (Rosatom) has just signed an agreement with the French company EDF, collaboration between Siemens and Rosatom was stagnating.

–   Ex-Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (Social Democratic Party, SPD) has excoriated the Merkel government for its “lack of ideas” for some time, calling for the EU to conclude an association agreement with Russia, to survive against the power centres of the USA and China.

–   In an article in Die Welt, he wrote that Russia was important for Germany and Europe for two reasons. First, Europeans needed “direct access to the huge Russian natural resources”, and secondly, “stability and security” could only be guaranteed in Europe through the “closest possible partnership with Russia”.

–   Under the pressure of these comments, and in light of the economic and political effects of the financial crisis—which are rapidly dividing Germany and the United States—the Merkel government is using the Asia trip to strengthen German-Russian relations and make up lost ground.

–   To this end, Merkel assembled a delegation including not only German business leaders, but also representatives of all the political factions in the Bundestag (parliament). Moreover, for the first time, the German Trade Union[e] Association (DGB) head Michael Sommer was part of the Chancellor’s retinue.

–   The Left Party is represented in Merkel’s delegation by André Brie, who is also a member of the German Steering Committee of the Petersburg Dialogue group, which met on Thursday for the tenth time in Ekaterinburg. This body was established in 2001 by former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder and former Russian President Vladimir Putin. This year’s patrons of the discussion forum, which aims to promote relations between Germany and Russia, are Chancellor Merkel and Russian President Medvedev.

–   The Left Party is offering itself as an auxiliary support for a new foreign policy orientation towards Moscow. As well as André Brie, other Left Party officials rose within the Institute for International Relations (IIB), the main foreign policy training facility of the German Democratic Republic (GDR, former East Germany), and enjoy many years of good relations with Russia.

–   The increased focus on Russia is linked to specific economic interests and lucrative large-scale contracts. Some 25 business leaders form the core of the German delegation, including Tom Enders (Airbus), Peter Löscher (Siemens), Johannes Teyssen (Eon) and Martin Winterkorn (VW).

–   The business press (FAZ, Handelsblatt and Wirtschaftwoche) has described these major contracts and commercial interests in detail: the goal of the German companies is to win a large proportion of the contracts for updating ailing energy networks, restructuring inefficient industries and renovating old housing stock.

–   Siemens and the German Energy Agency (Dena), in cooperation with the city of Ekaterinburg, have opened an office for efficient construction and renovation. Medvedev announced a “modernization alliance” with the EU, in which Germany would play “a central role”.

–   There was no shortage of expressions of support between Merkel and Medvedev during the consultations, and German companies were able to secure several large orders. In the coming years, Siemens will deliver 220 regional trains worth €2.4 billion and modernize marshalling yards at a cost of €600 million; Airbus will supply planes valued at two billion euros. However, this did not silence many business leaders’ complaints.

–   Klaus Mangold, chair of the Eastern Committee of German Business, let it be known that many of these contracts “did not come about due to the policies of the federal government, but despite them”.

–   German Council on Foreign Relations expert Meister mourns the fact Frank Walter Steinmeier (SPD) is no longer foreign minister, who had invented the concept of a “modernization partnership”. He told Der Spiegel, “Previously, the foreign ministry had set the tone in German-Russian relations. But Westerwelle lacks the right feeling for Russia”.

–   Along with big business, sections of the political elite are also pushing for closer cooperation with Russia on security policy. In a commentary in the Süddeutsche Zeitung last week, former German Defence Minister Volker Rühe (CDU) and Russian Ambassador Dmitry Rogozin advocated NATO membership for Russia, a call also contained in a strategy paper issued in June, following a Berlin seminar held by the Federal Academy for Security Policy.

–   However, closer cooperation along the Berlin-Moscow axis is not without controversy. Last week, former German foreign minister and Vice Chancellor Joschka Fischer (Alliance 90/Green Party) spoke out in a commentary in the Süddeutsche Zeitung, attacking Merkel from the opposite point of view. He accused her of criminally neglecting cooperation with Turkey, and thus of harming Germany’s strategic interests.

–   Turkey, according to Fischer, found itself “in a perfect geopolitical position in one of the key regions of world politics, and especially for European security”. Without Turkey, the West would “not be able to do anything, or not very much” in important regions like the eastern Mediterranean, the Aegean, the western Balkans, the Caspian region, the southern Caucasus, Central Asia and the Middle East. Turkey could not be bypassed “if one is seeking alternatives to the growing European dependence on Russian energy supplies in the region”, writes the former foreign minister.

–   Fischer sums up his criticism with the words, “Instead of binding Turkey as tightly as possible to Europe and the West, European policy is driving Ankara into the arms of Russia and Iran!”

–   Fischer’s arguments are linked to his consultancy work for the Nabucco pipeline project, in which the German RWE Group is also involved. In the summer of last year, he followed his former coalition partner Gerhard Schröder into the boardrooms of the energy industry.

–   However, the two are working at opposite poles of the European energy supply industry. After the change of government in late 2005, it had taken Schröder just a few months before he gained a lucrative post heading the Supervisory Board of the NEGP Company pipeline consortium, which is building a pipeline under the Baltic Sea in close cooperation with Russian energy giant Gazprom.

–   Ahead of the Merkel trip, the accusation was raised that Gazprom had deliberately torpedoed the rival Nabucco project.

–   Issues of energy security and the economy will also play a role on the second part of Merkel’s trip to China and Kazakhstan. Even if tensions are not to be expected, conflicts are growing under the surface. China has not only replaced Germany as the world’s leading exporter, but has also considerably extended its relationship with Russia. It imports Russian raw materials and exports goods to Russia, thus taking over the role claimed by Germany. Government advisers like the Russia expert Alexander Rahr have long talked of the danger of Russia turning to China, if Germany and Europe should fail to win Russia’s loyalty.

–   How German Ostpolitik will develop in such a context is not entirely clear. What is clear, however, is that the attacks on the Merkel government are also strongly motivated by foreign policy considerations.

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